Premier League · England · Regular Season - 36

Tottenham–Leeds

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 11 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'TottenhamM. Tel
74'LeedsD. Calvert-Lewin (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tottenham		Leeds
16	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
14	Corners	2
1	Offsides	3
57%	Possession	43%
431	Passes	336
345	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tottenham 1.35 · Leeds 1.44. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Tottenham 16 · Leeds 11; on target 3 and 4.
Tottenham kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

J. Gillett→

3.88

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.5%: “Tottenham to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for Tottenham, 1.06 for Leeds.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (1X — Tottenham win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,498 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tottenham to win52.5%

Draw25.6%

Leeds to win21.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	7

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Tottenham lead at half-time18.5%

Level at half-time40.9%

Leeds lead at half-time40.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Tottenham ahead or level59.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Leeds ahead81.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1498 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Tottenham: at least 11Actual: 12
Leeds: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Tottenham: at least 5Actual: 14
Leeds: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tottenham score1.35

Attack: Tottenham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leeds's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leeds score1.44

Attack: Leeds score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tottenham's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–110.7%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.