Premier League · England · Regular Season - 36

West Ham–Arsenal

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: London Stadium, London

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

83'ArsenalL. Trossard (assist: M. Ødegaard)

Match statistics

Match statistics
West Ham		Arsenal
9	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
36%	Possession	64%
283	Passes	500
187	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: West Ham 0.86 · Arsenal 1.81. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots West Ham 9 · Arsenal 15; on target 3 and 4.
Arsenal kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

C. Kavanagh→

3.97

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

106

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.8%: “Arsenal to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.87 for West Ham, 1.90 for Arsenal.
The highest double chance value is 84.9% (X2 — draw or Arsenal win).
These values were computed from 1,497 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

West Ham to win15.1%

Draw23.0%

Arsenal to win61.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

West Ham lead at half-time15.2%

Level at half-time41.1%

Arsenal lead at half-time43.7%

First-half double chance

1X — West Ham ahead or level56.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Arsenal ahead84.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1497 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

West Ham: at least 10Actual: 14
Arsenal: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

West Ham: at least 3Actual: 4
Arsenal: at least 5Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals West Ham score0.86

Attack: West Ham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arsenal concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arsenal score1.81

Attack: Arsenal score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: West Ham's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%0–211.6%0–111.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.