Premier League · England · Regular Season - 36

Nottingham Forest–Newcastle

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: City Ground, Nottingham

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

74'NewcastleH. Barnes (assist: J. Ramsey)
88'Nottingham ForestE. Anderson (assist: J. McAtee)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nottingham Forest		Newcastle
17	Shots	16
6	Shots on target	6
11	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
2	Corners	1
1	Offsides	0
46%	Possession	54%
421	Passes	495
343	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nottingham Forest 1.40 · Newcastle 1.40. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Nottingham Forest 17 · Newcastle 16; on target 6 and 6.

Referee

P. Tierney→

3.78

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.4%: “Newcastle to win”. Second comes “Nottingham Forest to win” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Nottingham Forest, 1.56 for Newcastle.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,494 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nottingham Forest to win28.7%

Draw26.9%

Newcastle to win44.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Nottingham Forest lead at half-time28.8%

Level at half-time41.1%

Newcastle lead at half-time30.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Nottingham Forest ahead or level69.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Newcastle ahead71.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1494 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nottingham Forest: at least 10Actual: 16
Newcastle: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Nottingham Forest: at least 4Actual: 2
Newcastle: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nottingham Forest score1.40

Attack: Nottingham Forest score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Newcastle's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Newcastle score1.40

Attack: Newcastle score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Nottingham Forest's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–210.1%0–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.