Premier League · England · Regular Season - 36

Crystal Palace–Everton

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Selhurst Park, London

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'EvertonJ. Tarkowski
34'Crystal PalaceI. Sarr
47'EvertonBeto (assist: J. Tarkowski)
77'Crystal PalaceJ. Mateta

Match statistics

Match statistics
Crystal Palace		Everton
21	Shots	13
8	Shots on target	6
15	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	10
1	Offsides	2
59%	Possession	41%
467	Passes	315
387	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Crystal Palace 1.53 · Everton 1.12. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Crystal Palace 21 · Everton 13; on target 8 and 6.
Crystal Palace kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

T. Bramall→

3.93

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.4%: “Everton to win”. Second comes “Crystal Palace to win” at 34.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for Crystal Palace, 1.32 for Everton.
The highest double chance value is 71.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,494 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Crystal Palace to win34.0%

Draw28.6%

Everton to win37.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Crystal Palace lead at half-time27.7%

Level at half-time44.8%

Everton lead at half-time27.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Crystal Palace ahead or level72.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or Everton ahead72.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1494 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Crystal Palace: at least 10Actual: 5
Everton: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

Crystal Palace: at least 4Actual: 5
Everton: at least 3Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Crystal Palace score1.53

Attack: Crystal Palace score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Everton's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Everton score1.12

Attack: Everton score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Crystal Palace's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%0–19.1%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.