Premier League · England · Regular Season - 36

Manchester City–Brentford

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Etihad Stadium, Manchester

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

60'Manchester CityJ. Doku
75'Manchester CityE. Haaland
90'Manchester CityOmar Marmoush (assist: E. Haaland)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manchester City		Brentford
25	Shots	4
10	Shots on target	2
15	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
10	Corners	2
0	Offsides	2
59%	Possession	41%
463	Passes	320
397	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manchester City 1.95 · Brentford 1.08. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Manchester City 25 · Brentford 4; on target 10 and 2.
Manchester City kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

M. Salisbury→

3.74

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.2%: “Manchester City to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.57 for Manchester City, 1.03 for Brentford.
The highest double chance value is 88.4% (1X — Manchester City win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,493 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manchester City to win71.2%

Draw17.2%

Brentford to win11.6%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Manchester City lead at half-time60.7%

Level at half-time32.8%

Brentford lead at half-time6.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Manchester City ahead or level93.4%

12 — not level at half-time67.2%

X2 — level or Brentford ahead39.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1493 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manchester City: at least 8Actual: 8
Brentford: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Manchester City: at least 6Actual: 10
Brentford: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manchester City score1.95

Attack: Manchester City score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Brentford's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Brentford score1.08

Attack: Brentford score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manchester City concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.2%2–09.1%3–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.