Premier League · England · Regular Season - 36

Fulham–Bournemouth

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Craven Cottage, London

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'BournemouthR. Christie · red card
45+7'FulhamJ. Andersen · red card
53'BournemouthRayan (assist: A. Smith)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fulham		Bournemouth
14	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
11	Corners	2
1	Offsides	3
60%	Possession	40%
520	Passes	359
456	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fulham 1.43 · Bournemouth 1.46. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Fulham 14 · Bournemouth 10; on target 2 and 5.
Fulham kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

A. Madley→

3.64

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.2%: “Bournemouth to win”. Second comes “Fulham to win” at 35.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for Fulham, 1.56 for Bournemouth.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,490 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fulham to win35.8%

Draw26.0%

Bournemouth to win38.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	21

4	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Fulham lead at half-time27.2%

Level at half-time43.5%

Bournemouth lead at half-time29.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Fulham ahead or level70.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Bournemouth ahead72.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1490 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fulham: at least 9Actual: 12
Bournemouth: at least 10Actual: 21

Corners

Fulham: at least 5Actual: 11
Bournemouth: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fulham score1.43

Attack: Fulham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bournemouth's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bournemouth score1.46

Attack: Bournemouth score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Fulham's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%1–29.3%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.