Premier League · England · Regular Season - 36

Liverpool–Chelsea

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Anfield, Liverpool

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'LiverpoolR. Gravenberch (assist: R. Ngumoha)
35'ChelseaE. Fernandez

Match statistics

Match statistics
Liverpool		Chelsea
8	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
473	Passes	515
398	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Liverpool 1.80 · Chelsea 1.31. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Liverpool 8 · Chelsea 6; on target 3 and 3.

Referee

C. Pawson→

4.08

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

105

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.1%: “Liverpool to win”. Second comes “Chelsea to win” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.78 for Liverpool, 1.31 for Chelsea.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,489 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Liverpool to win48.1%

Draw25.1%

Chelsea to win26.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Liverpool win or draw73.1%

12 — any result other than a draw74.9%

X2 — draw or Chelsea win51.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Liverpool lead at half-time43.9%

Level at half-time39.7%

Chelsea lead at half-time16.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Liverpool ahead or level83.5%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or Chelsea ahead56.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1489 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Liverpool: at least 10Actual: 17
Chelsea: at least 9Actual: 17

Corners

Liverpool: at least 4Actual: 5
Chelsea: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 57.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Liverpool score1.80

Attack: Liverpool score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Chelsea's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.80 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Chelsea score1.31

Attack: Chelsea score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Liverpool's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–110.4%1–27.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1489 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 149 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.