Premier League · England · Regular Season - 35

Everton–Manchester City

3–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 4 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 20%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'Manchester CityJ. Doku (assist: R. Cherki)
68'EvertonT. Barry
73'EvertonJ. O'Brien (assist: J. Garner)
81'EvertonT. Barry
83'Manchester CityE. Haaland (assist: M. Kovačić)
90'Manchester CityJ. Doku (assist: M. Guéhi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Everton		Manchester City
14	Shots	21
6	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	13
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	9
4	Offsides	0
25%	Possession	75%
201	Passes	629
138	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Everton 1.05 · Manchester City 1.65. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots Everton 14 · Manchester City 21; on target 6 and 4.
Manchester City kept the ball more (75%).

Referee

M. Oliver→

3.87

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

143

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.5%: “Manchester City to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.92 for Everton, 2.18 for Manchester City.
The highest double chance value is 86.8% (X2 — draw or Manchester City win).
These values were computed from 1,488 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Everton to win13.2%

Draw20.2%

Manchester City to win66.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	5

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Everton lead at half-time16.7%

Level at half-time42.3%

Manchester City lead at half-time41.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Everton ahead or level59.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Manchester City ahead83.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1488 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Everton: at least 10Actual: 15
Manchester City: at least 9Actual: 5

Corners

Everton: at least 3Actual: 5
Manchester City: at least 5Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Everton score1.05

Attack: Everton score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manchester City concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Manchester City score1.65

Attack: Manchester City score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Everton's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–210.9%1–210.9%1–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.