Premier League · England · Regular Season - 35

Aston Villa–Tottenham

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'TottenhamC. Gallagher
25'TottenhamRicharlison (assist: M. Tel)
90'Aston VillaE. Buendía (assist: M. Cash)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aston Villa		Tottenham
5	Shots	10
1	Shots on target	5
2	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	5
2	Offsides	4
45%	Possession	55%
374	Passes	466
312	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aston Villa 1.71 · Tottenham 1.10. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Aston Villa 5 · Tottenham 10; on target 1 and 5.
Tottenham kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

S. Barrott→

3.65

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.3%: “Aston Villa to win”. Second comes “Tottenham to win” at 31.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Aston Villa, 1.35 for Tottenham.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,486 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aston Villa to win42.3%

Draw26.4%

Tottenham to win31.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Aston Villa lead at half-time47.7%

Level at half-time38.4%

Tottenham lead at half-time13.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Aston Villa ahead or level86.1%

12 — not level at half-time61.6%

X2 — level or Tottenham ahead52.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1486 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aston Villa: at least 9Actual: 12
Tottenham: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Aston Villa: at least 5Actual: 5
Tottenham: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aston Villa score1.71

Attack: Aston Villa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tottenham's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tottenham score1.10

Attack: Tottenham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aston Villa's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–19.9%1–28.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.