Premier League · England · Regular Season - 35

Manchester United–Liverpool

3–2

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Manchester UnitedMatheus Cunha
14'Manchester UnitedB. Šeško
47'LiverpoolD. Szoboszlai
56'LiverpoolC. Gakpo (assist: D. Szoboszlai)
77'Manchester UnitedK. Mainoo

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manchester United		Liverpool
18	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	5
14	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	2
3	Offsides	3
37%	Possession	63%
362	Passes	613
287	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manchester United 1.47 · Liverpool 1.46. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Manchester United 18 · Liverpool 13; on target 6 and 5.
Liverpool kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

D. England→

4.46

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.4%: “Manchester United to win”. Second comes “Liverpool to win” at 34.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.69 for Manchester United, 1.56 for Liverpool.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,485 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manchester United to win40.4%

Draw25.1%

Liverpool to win34.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Manchester United lead at half-time25.9%

Level at half-time43.9%

Liverpool lead at half-time30.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Manchester United ahead or level69.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Liverpool ahead74.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1485 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manchester United: at least 9Actual: 12
Liverpool: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Manchester United: at least 4Actual: 3
Liverpool: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manchester United score1.47

Attack: Manchester United score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Liverpool's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Liverpool score1.46

Attack: Liverpool score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Manchester United's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–19.5%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.