Premier League · England · Regular Season - 35

Arsenal–Fulham

3–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Emirates Stadium, London

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'ArsenalV. Gyökeres (assist: B. Saka)
40'ArsenalB. Saka (assist: V. Gyökeres)
45'ArsenalV. Gyökeres (assist: L. Trossard)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arsenal		Fulham
18	Shots	10
9	Shots on target	1
14	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
3	Corners	4
7	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
511	Passes	433
453	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arsenal 1.87 · Fulham 0.76. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Arsenal 18 · Fulham 10; on target 9 and 1.

Referee

J. Gillett→

3.91

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.9%: “Arsenal to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.96 for Arsenal, 0.77 for Fulham.
The highest double chance value is 87.6% (1X — Arsenal win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,483 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arsenal to win65.9%

Draw21.7%

Fulham to win12.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Arsenal lead at half-time47.6%

Level at half-time40.9%

Fulham lead at half-time11.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Arsenal ahead or level88.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Fulham ahead52.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1483 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arsenal: at least 8Actual: 7
Fulham: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Arsenal: at least 6Actual: 3
Fulham: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arsenal score1.87

Attack: Arsenal score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Fulham's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fulham score0.76

Attack: Fulham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arsenal concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.0%1–012.1%1–111.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.