Premier League · England · Regular Season - 35

Brentford–West Ham

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Brentford Community Stadium, London

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'BrentfordK. Mavropanos (own goal)
54'BrentfordThiago (penalty)
82'BrentfordM. Damsgaard (assist: K. Lewis-Potter)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Brentford		West Ham
14	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
48%	Possession	52%
333	Passes	348
263	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Brentford 1.83 · West Ham 1.08. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Brentford 14 · West Ham 13; on target 6 and 4.

Referee

C. Pawson→

4.08

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

104

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.3%: “Brentford to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.85 for Brentford, 1.25 for West Ham.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (1X — Brentford win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,480 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Brentford to win51.3%

Draw24.4%

West Ham to win24.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Brentford win or draw75.7%

12 — any result other than a draw75.6%

X2 — draw or West Ham win48.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Brentford lead at half-time38.7%

Level at half-time40.6%

West Ham lead at half-time20.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Brentford ahead or level79.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or West Ham ahead61.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1480 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Brentford: at least 9Actual: 8
West Ham: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Brentford: at least 5Actual: 2
West Ham: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 57.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Brentford score1.83

Attack: Brentford score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: West Ham's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals West Ham score1.08

Attack: West Ham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Brentford's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%2–110.6%2–07.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1480 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 148 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.