Premier League · England · Regular Season - 34

Manchester United–Brentford

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Monday, 27 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Manchester UnitedCasemiro (assist: H. Maguire)
43'Manchester UnitedB. Šeško (assist: Bruno Fernandes)
87'BrentfordM. Jensen (assist: R. Nelson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manchester United		Brentford
11	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	8
1	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
414	Passes	497
340	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manchester United 1.62 · Brentford 1.32. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Manchester United 11 · Brentford 12; on target 6 and 4.
Brentford kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

C. Kavanagh→

3.93

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

104

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.7%: “Manchester United to win”. Second comes “Brentford to win” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.81 for Manchester United, 1.31 for Brentford.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,478 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manchester United to win48.7%

Draw24.8%

Brentford to win26.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Manchester United lead at half-time32.2%

Level at half-time42.9%

Brentford lead at half-time24.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Manchester United ahead or level75.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Brentford ahead67.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1478 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manchester United: at least 8Actual: 6
Brentford: at least 9Actual: 9

Corners

Manchester United: at least 5Actual: 7
Brentford: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manchester United score1.62

Attack: Manchester United score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Brentford's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Brentford score1.32

Attack: Brentford score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manchester United's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–110.4%1–27.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.