Premier League · England · Regular Season - 34

West Ham–Everton

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: London Stadium, London

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

51'West HamT. Soucek (assist: J. Bowen)
88'EvertonK. Dewsbury-Hall (assist: J. Tarkowski)
90'West HamC. Wilson (assist: J. Bowen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
West Ham		Everton
10	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
44%	Possession	56%
374	Passes	477
301	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: West Ham 1.34 · Everton 1.28. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots West Ham 10 · Everton 11; on target 3 and 3.
Everton kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

S. Attwell→

4.10

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.1%: “West Ham to win”. Second comes “Everton to win” at 33.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for West Ham, 1.32 for Everton.
The highest double chance value is 72.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,474 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

West Ham to win39.1%

Draw27.5%

Everton to win33.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

West Ham lead at half-time28.4%

Level at half-time43.6%

Everton lead at half-time28.0%

First-half double chance

1X — West Ham ahead or level72.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or Everton ahead71.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1474 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

West Ham: at least 10Actual: 9
Everton: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

West Ham: at least 5Actual: 3
Everton: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals West Ham score1.34

Attack: West Ham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Everton's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Everton score1.28

Attack: Everton score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: West Ham's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%2–19.5%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.