Premier League · England · Regular Season - 34

Wolves–Tottenham

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

82'TottenhamJoão Palhinha (assist: Richarlison)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Wolves		Tottenham
11	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	5
1	Offsides	2
41%	Possession	59%
305	Passes	467
232	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Wolves 1.26 · Tottenham 1.37. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Wolves 11 · Tottenham 11; on target 2 and 2.
Tottenham kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

A. Taylor→

3.97

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

144

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.5%: “Tottenham to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.07 for Wolves, 1.94 for Tottenham.
The highest double chance value is 80.9% (X2 — draw or Tottenham win).
These values were computed from 1,474 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Wolves to win19.1%

Draw23.4%

Tottenham to win57.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Wolves win or draw42.5%

12 — any result other than a draw76.6%

X2 — draw or Tottenham win80.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Wolves lead at half-time29.3%

Level at half-time41.5%

Tottenham lead at half-time29.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Wolves ahead or level70.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Tottenham ahead70.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1474 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Wolves: at least 11Actual: 8
Tottenham: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Wolves: at least 3Actual: 5
Tottenham: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 57.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Wolves score1.26

Attack: Wolves score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Tottenham's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tottenham score1.37

Attack: Tottenham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Wolves's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%1–211.0%0–29.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1474 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 147 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.