Premier League · England · Regular Season - 34

Sunderland–Nottingham Forest

0–5

HT 0–4

Kick-off: Friday, 24 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadium of Light, Sunderland

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 35%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Nottingham ForestTrai Hume (own goal)
31'Nottingham ForestC. Wood (assist: M. Gibbs-White)
34'Nottingham ForestM. Gibbs-White (assist: Igor Jesus)
37'Nottingham ForestIgor Jesus
90'Nottingham ForestE. Anderson (assist: T. Awoniyi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sunderland		Nottingham Forest
14	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
436	Passes	273
358	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sunderland 1.30 · Nottingham Forest 1.17. On the pitch: 0-5.
Shots Sunderland 14 · Nottingham Forest 10; on target 4 and 6.
Sunderland kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

D. England→

4.43

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.7%: “Sunderland to win”. Second comes “Nottingham Forest to win” at 34.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.21 for Sunderland, 1.19 for Nottingham Forest.
The highest double chance value is 70.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,472 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sunderland to win35.7%

Draw29.8%

Nottingham Forest to win34.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–4

Sunderland lead at half-time29.9%

Level at half-time46.2%

Nottingham Forest lead at half-time23.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Sunderland ahead or level76.2%

12 — not level at half-time53.8%

X2 — level or Nottingham Forest ahead70.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1472 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sunderland: at least 10Actual: 13
Nottingham Forest: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Sunderland: at least 4Actual: 3
Nottingham Forest: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sunderland score1.30

Attack: Sunderland score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nottingham Forest's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nottingham Forest score1.17

Attack: Nottingham Forest score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sunderland's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–010.1%0–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.