Premier League · England · Regular Season - 34

Burnley–Manchester City

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 22 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Turf Moor, Burnley

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Manchester CityE. Haaland (assist: J. Doku)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Burnley		Manchester City
9	Shots	28
1	Shots on target	9
6	Shots inside the box	19
8	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	11
4	Offsides	1
35%	Possession	65%
356	Passes	689
281	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Burnley 0.76 · Manchester City 2.24. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Burnley 9 · Manchester City 28; on target 1 and 9.
Manchester City kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

A. Madley→

3.67

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 83.5%: “Manchester City to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.70 for Burnley, 2.94 for Manchester City.
The highest double chance value is 95.1% (X2 — draw or Manchester City win).
These values were computed from 1,470 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Burnley to win4.9%

Draw11.5%

Manchester City to win83.5%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Burnley win or draw16.5%

12 — any result other than a draw88.5%

X2 — draw or Manchester City win95.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (11.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Burnley lead at half-time3.5%

Level at half-time28.4%

Manchester City lead at half-time68.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Burnley ahead or level31.8%

12 — not level at half-time71.6%

X2 — level or Manchester City ahead96.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1470 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Burnley: at least 10Actual: 10
Manchester City: at least 8Actual: 12

Corners

Burnley: at least 3Actual: 3
Manchester City: at least 5Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals71.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 405 of 553 predictions were correct (73.2%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 57.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Burnley score0.76

Attack: Burnley score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Manchester City concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Manchester City score2.24

Attack: Manchester City score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Burnley concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.24 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–311.6%0–211.5%1–38.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1470 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 71 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.