Premier League · England · Regular Season - 33

Manchester City–Arsenal

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Etihad Stadium, Manchester

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'Manchester CityR. Cherki (assist: M. Nunes)
18'ArsenalK. Havertz
65'Manchester CityE. Haaland

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manchester City		Arsenal
15	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	5
0	Offsides	4
59%	Possession	41%
498	Passes	348
424	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manchester City 1.28 · Arsenal 1.29. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Manchester City 15 · Arsenal 9; on target 5 and 3.
Manchester City kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

A. Taylor→

3.97

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

143

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.9%: “Manchester City to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for Manchester City, 1.01 for Arsenal.
The highest double chance value is 78.2% (1X — Manchester City win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,467 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manchester City to win51.9%

Draw26.3%

Arsenal to win21.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Manchester City lead at half-time37.8%

Level at half-time43.4%

Arsenal lead at half-time18.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Manchester City ahead or level81.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.6%

X2 — level or Arsenal ahead62.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1467 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manchester City: at least 9Actual: 5
Arsenal: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Manchester City: at least 4Actual: 8
Arsenal: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manchester City score1.28

Attack: Manchester City score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Arsenal concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.28 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Arsenal score1.29

Attack: Arsenal score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Manchester City concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–010.8%2–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.