Premier League · England · Regular Season - 33

Aston Villa–Sunderland

4–3

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'Aston VillaO. Watkins (assist: J. McGinn)
9'SunderlandChris Rigg (assist: Noah Sadiki)
36'Aston VillaO. Watkins (assist: I. Maatsen)
46'Aston VillaM. Rogers (assist: O. Watkins)
86'SunderlandTrai Hume
87'SunderlandWilson Isidor (assist: Enzo Le Fée)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aston Villa		Sunderland
15	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	7
10	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	5
0	Offsides	3
50%	Possession	50%
403	Passes	406
341	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aston Villa 1.46 · Sunderland 1.04. On the pitch: 4-3.
Shots Aston Villa 15 · Sunderland 10; on target 7 and 7.

Referee

S. Barrott→

3.64

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.4%: “Aston Villa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for Aston Villa, 0.93 for Sunderland.
The highest double chance value is 80.9% (1X — Aston Villa win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,464 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aston Villa to win55.4%

Draw25.5%

Sunderland to win19.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Aston Villa lead at half-time35.5%

Level at half-time46.1%

Sunderland lead at half-time18.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Aston Villa ahead or level81.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.9%

X2 — level or Sunderland ahead64.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1464 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aston Villa: at least 9Actual: 11
Sunderland: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Aston Villa: at least 5Actual: 4
Sunderland: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aston Villa score1.46

Attack: Aston Villa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sunderland's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sunderland score1.04

Attack: Sunderland score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aston Villa's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%1–011.4%2–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.