Premier League · England · Regular Season - 33

Everton–Liverpool

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'LiverpoolMohamed Salah (assist: C. Gakpo)
54'EvertonBeto (assist: K. Dewsbury-Hall)
90'LiverpoolV. van Dijk (assist: D. Szoboszlai)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Everton		Liverpool
10	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	6
4	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
377	Passes	498
288	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Everton 1.17 · Liverpool 1.55. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Everton 10 · Liverpool 14; on target 4 and 6.
Liverpool kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

C. Kavanagh→

3.95

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

103

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.0%: “Liverpool to win”. Second comes “Everton to win” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for Everton, 1.53 for Liverpool.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,464 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Everton to win29.8%

Draw27.2%

Liverpool to win43.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Everton lead at half-time26.1%

Level at half-time44.6%

Liverpool lead at half-time29.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Everton ahead or level70.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.4%

X2 — level or Liverpool ahead73.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1464 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Everton: at least 9Actual: 8
Liverpool: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Everton: at least 4Actual: 1
Liverpool: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Everton score1.17

Attack: Everton score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Liverpool's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Liverpool score1.55

Attack: Liverpool score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Everton's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–210.0%0–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.