Premier League · England · Regular Season - 33

Tottenham–Brighton

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'TottenhamP. Porro (assist: X. Simons)
45'BrightonK. Mitoma (assist: P. Groß)
77'TottenhamX. Simons (assist: L. Bergvall)
90'BrightonG. Rutter (assist: J. van Hecke)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tottenham		Brighton
13	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	5
2	Offsides	0
42%	Possession	58%
328	Passes	435
263	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tottenham 1.25 · Brighton 1.53. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Tottenham 13 · Brighton 10; on target 6 and 3.
Brighton kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

S. Attwell→

4.10

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.5%: “Brighton to win”. Second comes “Tottenham to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Tottenham, 1.63 for Brighton.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,462 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tottenham to win31.5%

Draw26.0%

Brighton to win42.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Tottenham lead at half-time26.6%

Level at half-time41.2%

Brighton lead at half-time32.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Tottenham ahead or level67.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Brighton ahead73.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1462 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Tottenham: at least 10Actual: 14
Brighton: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Tottenham: at least 5Actual: 7
Brighton: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tottenham score1.25

Attack: Tottenham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Brighton's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Brighton score1.53

Attack: Brighton score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tottenham's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%1–29.9%2–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.