Premier League · England · Regular Season - 32

Manchester United–Leeds

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Monday, 13 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 18%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'LeedsN. Okafor
29'LeedsN. Okafor (assist: B. Aaronson)
56'Manchester UnitedLisandro Martínez · red card
69'Manchester UnitedCasemiro (assist: Bruno Fernandes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manchester United		Leeds
20	Shots	15
9	Shots on target	6
15	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
11	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
53%	Possession	47%
497	Passes	453
420	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manchester United 1.71 · Leeds 1.17. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Manchester United 20 · Leeds 15; on target 9 and 6.

Referee

P. Tierney→

3.80

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.1%: “Manchester United to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.96 for Manchester United, 1.03 for Leeds.
The highest double chance value is 82.1% (1X — Manchester United win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,458 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manchester United to win59.1%

Draw23.0%

Leeds to win17.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Manchester United lead at half-time29.7%

Level at half-time45.1%

Leeds lead at half-time25.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Manchester United ahead or level74.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or Leeds ahead70.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1458 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manchester United: at least 10Actual: 12
Leeds: at least 9Actual: 15

Corners

Manchester United: at least 4Actual: 11
Leeds: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manchester United score1.71

Attack: Manchester United score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Leeds's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leeds score1.17

Attack: Leeds score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manchester United's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%2–111.0%2–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.