Premier League · England · Regular Season - 32

Sunderland–Tottenham

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadium of Light, Sunderland

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 35%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

61'SunderlandNordi Mukiele (assist: H. Diarra)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sunderland		Tottenham
13	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	10
7	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	6
0	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
403	Passes	365
318	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sunderland 1.42 · Tottenham 1.17. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Sunderland 13 · Tottenham 11; on target 2 and 7.

Referee

R. Jones→

4.38

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

106

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.8%: “Tottenham to win”. Second comes “Sunderland to win” at 34.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Sunderland, 1.41 for Tottenham.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,454 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sunderland to win34.6%

Draw27.6%

Tottenham to win37.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sunderland lead at half-time35.7%

Level at half-time43.4%

Tottenham lead at half-time20.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Sunderland ahead or level79.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.6%

X2 — level or Tottenham ahead64.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1454 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sunderland: at least 10Actual: 14
Tottenham: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Sunderland: at least 4Actual: 2
Tottenham: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sunderland score1.42

Attack: Sunderland score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Tottenham's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tottenham score1.17

Attack: Tottenham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sunderland's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–29.3%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.