Premier League · England · Regular Season - 32

Nottingham Forest–Aston Villa

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: City Ground, Nottingham

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'Aston VillaMurillo (own goal)
38'Nottingham ForestN. Williams (assist: C. Hudson-Odoi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nottingham Forest		Aston Villa
15	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
41%	Possession	59%
336	Passes	501
278	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nottingham Forest 1.30 · Aston Villa 1.29. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Nottingham Forest 15 · Aston Villa 12; on target 4 and 5.
Aston Villa kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

M. Salisbury→

3.74

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.6%: “Nottingham Forest to win”. Second comes “Aston Villa to win” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Nottingham Forest, 1.25 for Aston Villa.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,454 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nottingham Forest to win40.6%

Draw27.8%

Aston Villa to win31.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Nottingham Forest lead at half-time26.4%

Level at half-time45.2%

Aston Villa lead at half-time28.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Nottingham Forest ahead or level71.6%

12 — not level at half-time54.8%

X2 — level or Aston Villa ahead73.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1454 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nottingham Forest: at least 11Actual: 15
Aston Villa: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Nottingham Forest: at least 4Actual: 7
Aston Villa: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nottingham Forest score1.30

Attack: Nottingham Forest score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aston Villa's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aston Villa score1.29

Attack: Aston Villa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nottingham Forest's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–19.6%1–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.