Premier League · England · Regular Season - 32

Crystal Palace–Newcastle

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Selhurst Park, London

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'NewcastleW. Osula (assist: L. Miley)
80'Crystal PalaceJ. Mateta (assist: T. Mitchell)
90'Crystal PalaceJ. Mateta (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Crystal Palace		Newcastle
11	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
380	Passes	542
303	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Crystal Palace 1.46 · Newcastle 1.37. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Crystal Palace 11 · Newcastle 7; on target 5 and 3.
Newcastle kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

A. Madley→

3.68

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.5%: “Newcastle to win”. Second comes “Crystal Palace to win” at 32.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Crystal Palace, 1.42 for Newcastle.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,454 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Crystal Palace to win32.7%

Draw27.8%

Newcastle to win39.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Crystal Palace lead at half-time28.9%

Level at half-time41.4%

Newcastle lead at half-time29.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Crystal Palace ahead or level70.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Newcastle ahead71.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1454 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Crystal Palace: at least 11Actual: 17
Newcastle: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Crystal Palace: at least 4Actual: 2
Newcastle: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Crystal Palace score1.46

Attack: Crystal Palace score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Newcastle's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Newcastle score1.37

Attack: Newcastle score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Crystal Palace's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–29.5%0–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.