Premier League · England · Regular Season - 32

Arsenal–Bournemouth

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Emirates Stadium, London

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 14%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'BournemouthE. J. Kroupi
35'ArsenalV. Gyökeres (penalty)
74'BournemouthA. Scott (assist: Evanilson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arsenal		Bournemouth
15	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
10	Corners	1
2	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
389	Passes	367
314	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arsenal 1.99 · Bournemouth 0.82. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Arsenal 15 · Bournemouth 8; on target 3 and 3.

Referee

M. Oliver→

3.86

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

140

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.3%: “Arsenal to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.15 for Arsenal, 0.95 for Bournemouth.
The highest double chance value is 86.0% (1X — Arsenal win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,450 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arsenal to win65.3%

Draw20.7%

Bournemouth to win14.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Arsenal lead at half-time51.3%

Level at half-time38.6%

Bournemouth lead at half-time10.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Arsenal ahead or level89.9%

12 — not level at half-time61.4%

X2 — level or Bournemouth ahead48.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1450 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arsenal: at least 9Actual: 12
Bournemouth: at least 11Actual: 18

Corners

Arsenal: at least 6Actual: 10
Bournemouth: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arsenal score1.99

Attack: Arsenal score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Bournemouth's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bournemouth score0.82

Attack: Bournemouth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arsenal concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%2–010.7%1–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.