Premier League · England · Regular Season - 31

Brighton–Liverpool

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Amex Stadium, Brighton

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'BrightonD. Welbeck (assist: D. Gómez)
30'LiverpoolM. Kerkez
56'BrightonD. Welbeck (assist: J. Hinshelwood)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Brighton		Liverpool
16	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	8
2	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
380	Passes	431
297	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Brighton 1.34 · Liverpool 1.54. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Brighton 16 · Liverpool 12; on target 7 and 5.

Referee

D. England→

4.38

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.6%: “Liverpool to win”. Second comes “Brighton to win” at 30.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Brighton, 1.69 for Liverpool.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,442 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Brighton to win30.9%

Draw25.5%

Liverpool to win43.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

5	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Brighton win or draw56.4%

12 — any result other than a draw74.5%

X2 — draw or Liverpool win69.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Brighton lead at half-time23.4%

Level at half-time43.3%

Liverpool lead at half-time33.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Brighton ahead or level66.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Liverpool ahead76.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1442 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Brighton: at least 10Actual: 11
Liverpool: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

Brighton: at least 4Actual: 4
Liverpool: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Brighton score1.34

Attack: Brighton score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Liverpool's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Liverpool score1.54

Attack: Liverpool score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Brighton's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%1–210.0%2–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1442 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 144 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.