Premier League · England · Regular Season - 30

Brentford–Wolves

2–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Monday, 16 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Brentford Community Stadium, London

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'BrentfordM. Kayode (assist: K. Lewis-Potter)
37'BrentfordThiago (assist: D. Ouattara)
44'WolvesA. Armstrong (assist: J. Bellegarde)
77'WolvesT. Arokodare (assist: Joao Gomes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Brentford		Wolves
10	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
438	Passes	428
336	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Brentford 1.84 · Wolves 0.94. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Brentford 10 · Wolves 13; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

S. Attwell→

4.08

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.5%: “Brentford to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.01 for Brentford, 0.94 for Wolves.
The highest double chance value is 84.6% (1X — Brentford win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,440 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Brentford to win62.5%

Draw22.2%

Wolves to win15.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Brentford lead at half-time49.6%

Level at half-time38.1%

Wolves lead at half-time12.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Brentford ahead or level87.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.9%

X2 — level or Wolves ahead50.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1440 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Brentford: at least 9Actual: 12
Wolves: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Brentford: at least 5Actual: 1
Wolves: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Brentford score1.84

Attack: Brentford score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Wolves's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Wolves score0.94

Attack: Wolves score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Brentford's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%2–111.0%2–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.