Premier League · England · Regular Season - 30

Crystal Palace–Leeds

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Selhurst Park, London

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45+5'LeedsG. Gudmundsson · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Crystal Palace		Leeds
12	Shots	10
0	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
8	Corners	3
5	Offsides	2
67%	Possession	33%
463	Passes	228
364	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Crystal Palace 1.64 · Leeds 1.26. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Crystal Palace 12 · Leeds 10; on target 0 and 3.
Crystal Palace kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

T. Bramall→

3.87

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.7%: “Crystal Palace to win”. Second comes “Leeds to win” at 35.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Crystal Palace, 1.25 for Leeds.
The highest double chance value is 71.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,436 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Crystal Palace to win35.7%

Draw29.0%

Leeds to win35.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Crystal Palace lead at half-time28.8%

Level at half-time42.8%

Leeds lead at half-time28.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Crystal Palace ahead or level71.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or Leeds ahead71.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1436 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Crystal Palace: at least 10Actual: 12
Leeds: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

Crystal Palace: at least 4Actual: 8
Leeds: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Crystal Palace score1.64

Attack: Crystal Palace score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leeds's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leeds score1.26

Attack: Leeds score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Crystal Palace's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–09.3%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.