Premier League · England · Regular Season - 30

Manchester United–Aston Villa

3–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

53'Manchester UnitedCasemiro (assist: Bruno Fernandes)
64'Aston VillaR. Barkley
71'Manchester UnitedMatheus Cunha (assist: Bruno Fernandes)
81'Manchester UnitedB. Šeško

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manchester United		Aston Villa
16	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
479	Passes	426
409	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manchester United 1.67 · Aston Villa 1.18. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Manchester United 16 · Aston Villa 9; on target 6 and 2.

Referee

A. Taylor→

3.96

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

140

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.5%: “Manchester United to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.92 for Manchester United, 1.10 for Aston Villa.
The highest double chance value is 80.1% (1X — Manchester United win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,436 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manchester United to win56.5%

Draw23.6%

Aston Villa to win19.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	5

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Manchester United lead at half-time33.4%

Level at half-time44.1%

Aston Villa lead at half-time22.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Manchester United ahead or level77.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Aston Villa ahead66.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1436 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manchester United: at least 10Actual: 10
Aston Villa: at least 9Actual: 5

Corners

Manchester United: at least 4Actual: 6
Aston Villa: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manchester United score1.67

Attack: Manchester United score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aston Villa's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aston Villa score1.18

Attack: Aston Villa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manchester United's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–110.9%2–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.