Premier League · England · Regular Season - 30

Arsenal–Everton

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Emirates Stadium, London

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

89'ArsenalV. Gyökeres (assist: P. Hincapié)
90'ArsenalM. Dowman (assist: G. Martinelli)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arsenal		Everton
25	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
65%	Possession	35%
581	Passes	321
503	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arsenal 1.80 · Everton 0.72. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Arsenal 25 · Everton 9; on target 7 and 3.
Arsenal kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

A. Madley→

3.72

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.7%: “Arsenal to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.03 for Arsenal, 0.68 for Everton.
The highest double chance value is 90.0% (1X — Arsenal win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,433 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arsenal to win69.7%

Draw20.3%

Everton to win10.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Arsenal lead at half-time44.7%

Level at half-time42.0%

Everton lead at half-time13.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Arsenal ahead or level86.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or Everton ahead55.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1433 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arsenal: at least 9Actual: 11
Everton: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Arsenal: at least 5Actual: 8
Everton: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arsenal score1.80

Attack: Arsenal score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Everton's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.80 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Everton score0.72

Attack: Everton score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Arsenal concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.3%1–012.9%1–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.