Premier League · England · Regular Season - 29

Wolves–Liverpool

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 3 March 2026 at 20:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 13%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

78'WolvesRodrigo Gomes (assist: T. Arokodare)
83'LiverpoolMohamed Salah
90'WolvesAndré (assist: J. Tchatchoua)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Wolves		Liverpool
4	Shots	19
3	Shots on target	7
2	Shots inside the box	13
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	11
1	Offsides	1
34%	Possession	66%
315	Passes	609
249	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Wolves 0.98 · Liverpool 1.81. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Wolves 4 · Liverpool 19; on target 3 and 7.
Liverpool kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

T. Bramall→

3.88

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.1%: “Liverpool to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.90 for Wolves, 2.18 for Liverpool.
The highest double chance value is 87.2% (X2 — draw or Liverpool win).
These values were computed from 1,424 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Wolves to win12.8%

Draw20.1%

Liverpool to win67.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Wolves win or draw32.9%

12 — any result other than a draw79.9%

X2 — draw or Liverpool win87.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Wolves lead at half-time16.6%

Level at half-time41.2%

Liverpool lead at half-time42.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Wolves ahead or level57.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Liverpool ahead83.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1424 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Wolves: at least 11Actual: 10
Liverpool: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Wolves: at least 3Actual: 2
Liverpool: at least 5Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 57.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Wolves score0.98

Attack: Wolves score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Liverpool's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Liverpool score1.81

Attack: Liverpool score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Wolves's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–211.1%1–210.9%1–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1424 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 142 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.