Premier League · England · Regular Season - 29

Everton–Burnley

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 3 March 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'EvertonJ. Tarkowski (assist: J. Garner)
60'EvertonK. Dewsbury-Hall (assist: I. Ndiaye)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Everton		Burnley
14	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
55%	Possession	45%
581	Passes	476
509	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Everton 1.76 · Burnley 0.92. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Everton 14 · Burnley 5; on target 5 and 2.
Everton kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

T. Robinson→

4.38

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.4%: “Everton to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for Everton, 0.80 for Burnley.
The highest double chance value is 84.3% (1X — Everton win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,421 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Everton to win59.4%

Draw24.9%

Burnley to win15.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Everton lead at half-time51.6%

Level at half-time36.7%

Burnley lead at half-time11.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Everton ahead or level88.3%

12 — not level at half-time63.3%

X2 — level or Burnley ahead48.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1421 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Everton: at least 9Actual: 10
Burnley: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Everton: at least 5Actual: 6
Burnley: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Everton score1.76

Attack: Everton score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Burnley concede 30% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Burnley score0.92

Attack: Burnley score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Everton's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.2%1–112.6%2–012.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.