Premier League · England · Regular Season - 28

Fulham–Tottenham

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Craven Cottage, London

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'FulhamH. Wilson
34'FulhamA. Iwobi (assist: H. Wilson)
66'TottenhamRicharlison (assist: A. Gray)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fulham		Tottenham
18	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	1
15	Shots inside the box	10
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	8
1	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
480	Passes	395
384	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fulham 1.62 · Tottenham 1.24. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Fulham 18 · Tottenham 13; on target 4 and 1.

Referee

T. Bramall→

3.86

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.3%: “Fulham to win”. Second comes “Tottenham to win” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for Fulham, 1.26 for Tottenham.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,417 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fulham to win47.3%

Draw25.7%

Tottenham to win27.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Fulham win or draw73.0%

12 — any result other than a draw74.3%

X2 — draw or Tottenham win52.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.7%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Fulham lead at half-time37.4%

Level at half-time41.1%

Tottenham lead at half-time21.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Fulham ahead or level78.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Tottenham ahead62.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1417 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fulham: at least 10Actual: 11
Tottenham: at least 9Actual: 14

Corners

Fulham: at least 4Actual: 5
Tottenham: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 57.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fulham score1.62

Attack: Fulham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tottenham's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tottenham score1.24

Attack: Tottenham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fulham's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.4%1–07.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1417 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 141 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.