Premier League · England · Regular Season - 27

Sunderland–Fulham

1–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadium of Light, Sunderland

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

54'FulhamR. Jiménez (assist: A. Iwobi)
61'FulhamR. Jiménez (penalty)
76'SunderlandEnzo Le Fée (penalty)
85'FulhamA. Iwobi (assist: H. Wilson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sunderland		Fulham
12	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
406	Passes	355
334	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sunderland 1.25 · Fulham 1.24. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Sunderland 12 · Fulham 12; on target 2 and 4.

Referee

C. Pawson→

4.11

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

100

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.7%: “Fulham to win”. Second comes “Sunderland to win” at 33.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Sunderland, 1.32 for Fulham.
The highest double chance value is 71.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,406 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sunderland to win33.6%

Draw28.7%

Fulham to win37.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sunderland lead at half-time29.5%

Level at half-time44.9%

Fulham lead at half-time25.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Sunderland ahead or level74.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.1%

X2 — level or Fulham ahead70.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1406 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sunderland: at least 8Actual: 6
Fulham: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Sunderland: at least 4Actual: 6
Fulham: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sunderland score1.25

Attack: Sunderland score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Fulham's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fulham score1.24

Attack: Fulham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sunderland's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–19.3%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.