Premier League · England · Regular Season - 27

Nottingham Forest–Liverpool

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: City Ground, Nottingham

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'LiverpoolA. Mac Allister

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nottingham Forest		Liverpool
18	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
421	Passes	489
348	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nottingham Forest 1.12 · Liverpool 1.69. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Nottingham Forest 18 · Liverpool 10; on target 2 and 4.

Referee

A. Taylor→

3.98

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

139

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.0%: “Liverpool to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for Nottingham Forest, 1.79 for Liverpool.
The highest double chance value is 76.0% (X2 — draw or Liverpool win).
These values were computed from 1,406 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nottingham Forest to win24.0%

Draw25.0%

Liverpool to win51.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Nottingham Forest win or draw49.0%

12 — any result other than a draw75.0%

X2 — draw or Liverpool win76.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Nottingham Forest lead at half-time23.6%

Level at half-time43.7%

Liverpool lead at half-time32.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Nottingham Forest ahead or level67.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Liverpool ahead76.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1406 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nottingham Forest: at least 9Actual: 13
Liverpool: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Nottingham Forest: at least 4Actual: 7
Liverpool: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 57.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nottingham Forest score1.12

Attack: Nottingham Forest score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Liverpool concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Liverpool score1.69

Attack: Liverpool score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Nottingham Forest's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%1–210.7%0–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1406 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 140 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.