Premier League · England · Regular Season - 26

Aston Villa–Brighton

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 11 February 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

86'Aston VillaJ. Hinshelwood (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aston Villa		Brighton
15	Shots	9
1	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	5
0	Offsides	3
50%	Possession	50%
418	Passes	418
342	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aston Villa 1.60 · Brighton 1.28. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Aston Villa 15 · Brighton 9; on target 1 and 3.

Referee

P. Bankes→

4.24

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.5%: “Aston Villa to win”. Second comes “Brighton to win” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for Aston Villa, 1.32 for Brighton.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,394 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aston Villa to win46.5%

Draw25.5%

Brighton to win28.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Aston Villa win or draw71.9%

12 — any result other than a draw74.5%

X2 — draw or Brighton win53.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Aston Villa lead at half-time42.5%

Level at half-time41.5%

Brighton lead at half-time16.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Aston Villa ahead or level84.0%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Brighton ahead57.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1394 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aston Villa: at least 9Actual: 9
Brighton: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Aston Villa: at least 5Actual: 7
Brighton: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals59.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 57.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aston Villa score1.60

Attack: Aston Villa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Brighton's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Brighton score1.28

Attack: Brighton score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aston Villa's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%2–110.3%1–27.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1394 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 139 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.