Premier League · England · Regular Season - 26

Nottingham Forest–Wolves

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 11 February 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: City Ground, Nottingham

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nottingham Forest		Wolves
35	Shots	7
10	Shots on target	3
16	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	10
8	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
480	Passes	287
426	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nottingham Forest 1.49 · Wolves 1.05. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Nottingham Forest 35 · Wolves 7; on target 10 and 3.
Nottingham Forest kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

T. Robinson→

4.41

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.6%: “Nottingham Forest to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.80 for Nottingham Forest, 1.02 for Wolves.
The highest double chance value is 80.2% (1X — Nottingham Forest win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,394 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nottingham Forest to win55.6%

Draw24.7%

Wolves to win19.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Nottingham Forest lead at half-time42.1%

Level at half-time40.6%

Wolves lead at half-time17.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Nottingham Forest ahead or level82.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Wolves ahead57.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1394 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nottingham Forest: at least 9Actual: 12
Wolves: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Nottingham Forest: at least 5Actual: 8
Wolves: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nottingham Forest score1.49

Attack: Nottingham Forest score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Wolves's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Wolves score1.05

Attack: Wolves score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nottingham Forest's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%2–110.9%1–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.