Premier League · England · Regular Season - 26

Manchester City–Fulham

3–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 11 February 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Etihad Stadium, Manchester

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'Manchester CityA. Semenyo
30'Manchester CityN. O'Reilly (assist: A. Semenyo)
39'Manchester CityE. Haaland (assist: P. Foden)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manchester City		Fulham
13	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	4
3	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
634	Passes	492
577	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manchester City 2.06 · Fulham 0.91. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Manchester City 13 · Fulham 14; on target 5 and 3.
Manchester City kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

P. Tierney→

3.85

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.1%: “Manchester City to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.42 for Manchester City, 0.96 for Fulham.
The highest double chance value is 88.3% (1X — Manchester City win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,394 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manchester City to win70.1%

Draw18.1%

Fulham to win11.7%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Manchester City lead at half-time57.9%

Level at half-time34.9%

Fulham lead at half-time7.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Manchester City ahead or level92.8%

12 — not level at half-time65.1%

X2 — level or Fulham ahead42.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1394 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manchester City: at least 8Actual: 8
Fulham: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Manchester City: at least 6Actual: 4
Fulham: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manchester City score2.06

Attack: Manchester City score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Fulham's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fulham score0.91

Attack: Fulham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manchester City concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.6%2–010.1%1–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.