Premier League · England · Regular Season - 26

West Ham–Manchester United

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 20:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: London Stadium, London

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'West HamT. Soucek (assist: J. Bowen)
90'Manchester UnitedB. Šeško (assist: B. Mbeumo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
West Ham		Manchester United
7	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	3
1	Offsides	3
35%	Possession	65%
329	Passes	629
261	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: West Ham 1.24 · Manchester United 1.76. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots West Ham 7 · Manchester United 9; on target 3 and 3.
Manchester United kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

S. Hooper→

4.22

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

101

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.9%: “Manchester United to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for West Ham, 2.06 for Manchester United.
The highest double chance value is 79.5% (X2 — draw or Manchester United win).
These values were computed from 1,393 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

West Ham to win20.5%

Draw22.6%

Manchester United to win56.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	4

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

West Ham lead at half-time31.1%

Level at half-time41.7%

Manchester United lead at half-time27.2%

First-half double chance

1X — West Ham ahead or level72.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Manchester United ahead68.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1393 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

West Ham: at least 9Actual: 10
Manchester United: at least 10Actual: 4

Corners

West Ham: at least 4Actual: 5
Manchester United: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals West Ham score1.24

Attack: West Ham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manchester United's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Manchester United score1.76

Attack: Manchester United score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: West Ham concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.8%1–110.6%0–28.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.