Premier League · England · Regular Season - 26

Chelsea–Leeds

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stamford Bridge, London

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'ChelseaJoão Pedro (assist: C. Palmer)
58'ChelseaC. Palmer (penalty)
67'LeedsL. Nmecha (penalty)
73'LeedsN. Okafor (assist: L. Nmecha)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Chelsea		Leeds
19	Shots	4
4	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	1
4	Offsides	1
66%	Possession	34%
644	Passes	336
593	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Chelsea 2.02 · Leeds 1.17. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Chelsea 19 · Leeds 4; on target 4 and 2.
Chelsea kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

R. Jones→

4.34

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

104

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.7%: “Chelsea to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.08 for Chelsea, 0.95 for Leeds.
The highest double chance value is 85.2% (1X — Chelsea win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,390 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Chelsea to win63.7%

Draw21.5%

Leeds to win14.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Chelsea win or draw85.2%

12 — any result other than a draw78.5%

X2 — draw or Leeds win36.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Chelsea lead at half-time34.9%

Level at half-time41.2%

Leeds lead at half-time23.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Chelsea ahead or level76.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Leeds ahead65.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1390 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Chelsea: at least 10Actual: 9
Leeds: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Chelsea: at least 5Actual: 4
Leeds: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals59.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 57.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Chelsea score2.02

Attack: Chelsea score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Leeds's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leeds score1.17

Attack: Leeds score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Chelsea's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–110.7%2–010.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1390 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 63 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.