Premier League · England · Regular Season - 25

Liverpool–Manchester City

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 February 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Anfield, Liverpool

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

74'LiverpoolD. Szoboszlai
84'Manchester CityB. Silva (assist: E. Haaland)
90'Manchester CityE. Haaland (penalty)
90+13'LiverpoolD. Szoboszlai · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Liverpool		Manchester City
15	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	7
9	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	4
6	Offsides	2
47%	Possession	53%
390	Passes	465
306	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Liverpool 1.58 · Manchester City 1.37. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Liverpool 15 · Manchester City 17; on target 4 and 7.

Referee

C. Pawson→

4.09

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.3%: “Liverpool to win”. Second comes “Manchester City to win” at 31.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.82 for Liverpool, 1.52 for Manchester City.
The highest double chance value is 75.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,389 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Liverpool to win44.3%

Draw24.5%

Manchester City to win31.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Liverpool lead at half-time20.3%

Level at half-time41.6%

Manchester City lead at half-time38.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Liverpool ahead or level61.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Manchester City ahead79.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1389 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Liverpool: at least 9Actual: 13
Manchester City: at least 8Actual: 16

Corners

Liverpool: at least 4Actual: 5
Manchester City: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Liverpool score1.58

Attack: Liverpool score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Manchester City concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Manchester City score1.37

Attack: Manchester City score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Liverpool concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%2–19.8%1–28.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.