Premier League · England · Regular Season - 24

Manchester United–Fulham

3–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 February 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Manchester UnitedCasemiro (assist: Bruno Fernandes)
56'Manchester UnitedMatheus Cunha (assist: Casemiro)
85'FulhamR. Jiménez (penalty)
90'FulhamKevin (assist: R. Sessegnon)
90'Manchester UnitedB. Šeško (assist: Bruno Fernandes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manchester United		Fulham
13	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	6
12	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	7
1	Offsides	2
42%	Possession	58%
428	Passes	576
372	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manchester United 1.79 · Fulham 1.11. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Manchester United 13 · Fulham 14; on target 6 and 6.
Fulham kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

J. Brooks→

4.49

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.0%: “Manchester United to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.21 for Manchester United, 1.09 for Fulham.
The highest double chance value is 83.8% (1X — Manchester United win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,375 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manchester United to win63.0%

Draw20.8%

Fulham to win16.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Manchester United lead at half-time38.1%

Level at half-time42.4%

Fulham lead at half-time19.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Manchester United ahead or level80.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Fulham ahead61.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1375 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manchester United: at least 8Actual: 6
Fulham: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Manchester United: at least 5Actual: 3
Fulham: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manchester United score1.79

Attack: Manchester United score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Fulham's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fulham score1.11

Attack: Fulham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manchester United's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%1–19.9%2–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.