Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 17

Trabzonspor–Giresunspor

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 5 January 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi, Trabzon

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'TrabzonsporR. Bajic (own goal)
69'TrabzonsporM. Gomez
75'TrabzonsporDoğucan Haspolat (assist: Djaniny)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Trabzonspor		Giresunspor
17	Shots	5
8	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
10	Corners	1
2	Offsides	5
67%	Possession	33%
746	Passes	364
668	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Trabzonspor 1.76 · Giresunspor 1.04. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Trabzonspor 17 · Giresunspor 5; on target 8 and 1.
Trabzonspor kept the ball more (67%).

Unavailable players

Trabzonspor

D. Toközout · Knee Injury
E. Viscaout · Collarbone injury
H. Turkmenout · Achilles Tendon Injury
Marc Bartraout · red-card suspension
S. Asanout · Knee Injury

Giresunspor

Borja Sainzout · yellow-card suspension
S. Picincioldoubtful · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:02.

Referee

A. Palabıyık→

5.20

yellows per match

0.60

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.8%: “Trabzonspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.86 for Trabzonspor, 0.88 for Giresunspor.
The highest double chance value is 84.2% (1X — Trabzonspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 150 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Trabzonspor to win60.8%

Draw23.5%

Giresunspor to win15.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Trabzonspor win or draw84.2%

12 — any result other than a draw76.5%

X2 — draw or Giresunspor win39.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Trabzonspor lead at half-time43.9%

Level at half-time41.6%

Giresunspor lead at half-time14.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Trabzonspor ahead or level85.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Giresunspor ahead56.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 150 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Trabzonspor: at least 12Actual: 11
Giresunspor: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Trabzonspor: at least 5Actual: 10
Giresunspor: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.7%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Trabzonspor score1.76

Attack: Trabzonspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Giresunspor's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Giresunspor score1.04

Attack: Giresunspor score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Trabzonspor's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–011.5%1–011.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 150 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 15 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.