Premier League · England · Regular Season - 23

Burnley–Tottenham

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 January 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Turf Moor, Burnley

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'TottenhamM. van de Ven
45'BurnleyA. Tuanzebe (assist: K. Walker)
76'BurnleyL. Foster
90'TottenhamC. Romero (assist: W. Odobert)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Burnley		Tottenham
9	Shots	18
4	Shots on target	11
6	Shots inside the box	11
9	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	3
3	Offsides	1
38%	Possession	62%
379	Passes	620
292	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Burnley 1.22 · Tottenham 1.55. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Burnley 9 · Tottenham 18; on target 4 and 11.
Tottenham kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

P. Bankes→

4.31

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.6%: “Tottenham to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.00 for Burnley, 1.47 for Tottenham.
The highest double chance value is 75.8% (X2 — draw or Tottenham win).
These values were computed from 1,361 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Burnley to win24.2%

Draw28.1%

Tottenham to win47.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Burnley lead at half-time28.5%

Level at half-time41.3%

Tottenham lead at half-time30.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Burnley ahead or level69.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.7%

X2 — level or Tottenham ahead71.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1361 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Burnley: at least 9Actual: 8
Tottenham: at least 9Actual: 9

Corners

Burnley: at least 4Actual: 1
Tottenham: at least 5Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Burnley score1.22

Attack: Burnley score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Tottenham's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tottenham score1.55

Attack: Tottenham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Burnley concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%0–111.7%1–210.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.