Premier League · England · Regular Season - 22

Aston Villa–Everton

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 January 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 16%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

59'EvertonT. Barry

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aston Villa		Everton
18	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	4
1	Offsides	4
63%	Possession	37%
495	Passes	292
434	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aston Villa 1.61 · Everton 1.04. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Aston Villa 18 · Everton 9; on target 5 and 3.
Aston Villa kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

T. Harrington→

3.87

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.5%: “Aston Villa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.86 for Aston Villa, 0.89 for Everton.
The highest double chance value is 84.1% (1X — Aston Villa win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,358 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aston Villa to win60.5%

Draw23.5%

Everton to win15.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Aston Villa lead at half-time37.6%

Level at half-time43.0%

Everton lead at half-time19.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Aston Villa ahead or level80.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Everton ahead62.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1358 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aston Villa: at least 9Actual: 15
Everton: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Aston Villa: at least 5Actual: 6
Everton: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aston Villa score1.61

Attack: Aston Villa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Everton's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Everton score1.04

Attack: Everton score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aston Villa's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–011.4%1–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.