Premier League · England · Regular Season - 22

Sunderland–Crystal Palace

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadium of Light, Sunderland

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'Crystal PalaceYeremy Pino
33'SunderlandEnzo Le Fée (assist: Nordi Mukiele)
71'SunderlandBrian Brobbey

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sunderland		Crystal Palace
13	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	4
0	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
456	Passes	339
365	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sunderland 1.18 · Crystal Palace 1.35. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Sunderland 13 · Crystal Palace 6; on target 7 and 2.
Sunderland kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

R. Jones→

4.30

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

102

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.2%: “Sunderland to win”. Second comes “Crystal Palace to win” at 30.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Sunderland, 1.08 for Crystal Palace.
The highest double chance value is 70.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,351 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sunderland to win40.2%

Draw29.7%

Crystal Palace to win30.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Sunderland lead at half-time27.2%

Level at half-time47.9%

Crystal Palace lead at half-time24.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Sunderland ahead or level75.1%

12 — not level at half-time52.1%

X2 — level or Crystal Palace ahead72.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1351 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sunderland: at least 9Actual: 8
Crystal Palace: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Sunderland: at least 4Actual: 3
Crystal Palace: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sunderland score1.18

Attack: Sunderland score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Crystal Palace's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Crystal Palace score1.35

Attack: Crystal Palace score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sunderland's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–011.2%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.