Premier League · England · Regular Season - 21

Newcastle–Leeds

4–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Wednesday, 7 January 2026 at 20:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: St. James' Park, Newcastle

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'LeedsB. Aaronson (assist: D. Calvert-Lewin)
36'NewcastleH. Barnes (assist: Nick Woltemade)
45'LeedsD. Calvert-Lewin (penalty)
54'NewcastleJoelinton (assist: Bruno Guimaraes)
79'LeedsB. Aaronson (assist: I. Gruev)
90'NewcastleBruno Guimaraes

Match statistics

Match statistics
Newcastle		Leeds
18	Shots	14
8	Shots on target	6
15	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
545	Passes	334
471	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Newcastle 1.86 · Leeds 1.12. On the pitch: 4-3.
Shots Newcastle 18 · Leeds 14; on target 8 and 6.
Newcastle kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

M. Salisbury→

3.77

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.9%: “Newcastle to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.87 for Newcastle, 0.92 for Leeds.
The highest double chance value is 83.5% (1X — Newcastle win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,347 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Newcastle to win59.9%

Draw23.6%

Leeds to win16.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Newcastle lead at half-time44.9%

Level at half-time40.0%

Leeds lead at half-time15.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Newcastle ahead or level85.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Leeds ahead55.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1347 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Newcastle: at least 9Actual: 11
Leeds: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Newcastle: at least 4Actual: 8
Leeds: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Newcastle score1.86

Attack: Newcastle score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Leeds's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.86 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leeds score1.12

Attack: Leeds score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Newcastle's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–011.0%2–110.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.