Premier League · England · Regular Season - 21

West Ham–Nottingham Forest

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 6 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: London Stadium, London

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'West HamMurillo (own goal)
55'Nottingham ForestN. Domínguez (assist: E. Anderson)
89'Nottingham ForestM. Gibbs-White (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
West Ham		Nottingham Forest
14	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	5
1	Offsides	0
47%	Possession	53%
379	Passes	418
290	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: West Ham 1.35 · Nottingham Forest 1.37. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots West Ham 14 · Nottingham Forest 13; on target 3 and 5.

Referee

T. Harrington→

3.89

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.9%: “Nottingham Forest to win”. Second comes “West Ham to win” at 32.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for West Ham, 1.44 for Nottingham Forest.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,340 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

West Ham to win32.4%

Draw27.6%

Nottingham Forest to win39.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

West Ham lead at half-time30.4%

Level at half-time42.8%

Nottingham Forest lead at half-time26.8%

First-half double chance

1X — West Ham ahead or level73.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or Nottingham Forest ahead69.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1340 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

West Ham: at least 10Actual: 15
Nottingham Forest: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

West Ham: at least 4Actual: 6
Nottingham Forest: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals West Ham score1.35

Attack: West Ham score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nottingham Forest's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nottingham Forest score1.37

Attack: Nottingham Forest score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: West Ham concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–29.6%0–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.