Premier League · England · Regular Season - 19

West Ham–Brighton

2–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 30 December 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: London Stadium, London

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'West HamJ. Bowen (assist: Lucas Paqueta)
32'BrightonD. Welbeck (penalty)
45'West HamLucas Paqueta (penalty)
61'BrightonJ. Veltman

Match statistics

Match statistics
West Ham		Brighton
10	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
39%	Possession	61%
335	Passes	541
251	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: West Ham 1.31 · Brighton 1.65. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots West Ham 10 · Brighton 16; on target 4 and 6.
Brighton kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

M. Salisbury→

3.71

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.6%: “Brighton to win”. Second comes “West Ham to win” at 28.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for West Ham, 1.64 for Brighton.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,320 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

West Ham to win28.3%

Draw26.2%

Brighton to win45.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	18

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

West Ham lead at half-time32.5%

Level at half-time42.5%

Brighton lead at half-time25.0%

First-half double chance

1X — West Ham ahead or level75.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Brighton ahead67.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1320 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

West Ham: at least 10Actual: 11
Brighton: at least 11Actual: 18

Corners

West Ham: at least 4Actual: 5
Brighton: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals West Ham score1.31

Attack: West Ham score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Brighton's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Brighton score1.65

Attack: Brighton score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: West Ham's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–210.2%0–18.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.